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TrendsPosted in Technical analysis on 28/01/10

There is a well known trading slogan, which is "the trend is your friend". But of course the trend depends on the timeframe. For instance, an instrument can be in a up trend on the weekly chart, a sideways trend on the daily chart, a down trend on the 30 minute chart and an up trend on the one minute chart.

The ADX readings for the 7 instruments we track on this site are all currently below 25 (using the standard 14 day setting) and this is often associated with sideways markets.

But moving to a longer timeframe, the situation is different. One of the tools I use to identify trends is a set of three moving averages, and on the weekly charts I use 4 10 and 40 weeks, looking for how the three averages are aligned in respect to each other. The 4 above the 10 above the 40 is defined as an up trend; the 4 below the 10 below the 40 is defined as a down trend; everything else is defined as a sideways market.

On this timeframe using this tool two of the three currency pairs we track are all  sideways markets currently (Sterling Dollar and Euro Dollar) and the third, Dollar Yen, is in a downtrend. Gold, FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and S&P 500 are all in up trends, but all are close to moving into sideways markets since in each case the 4 week moving average is only just keeping its place above the 10 week.


Average Directional Index (ADX)Posted in Technical analysis on 17/07/08
One of the key pieces of information for a trader is whether or not an instrument is trending. If trending, then trend following techniques are appropriate, for example, buying uptrends on dips or selling down trends on rallies, channel or volatility break outs, or moving average crossover techniques. If not trending, then other techniques come in to play, for example buying support or oscillator weakness, and selling resistance or oscillator strength.

A number of tools have been designed to help identify and measure trends, and the Average Directional Index and related indicators created by Welles Wilder are amongst the most robust of these tools. The key concept underlying the Average Directional Index is that in an uptrend more of today's trading range will be above yesterday's high than will be below yesterday's low, vice versa in a downtrend. (Note, this tool is most commonly used on daily charts, but can be used for any time period, for example weekly, or intra day).

There are three components to this tool. +DI is a directional indicator which measures how much on average over a look back period each day's trading range has been above the high of the previous day, expressed as a percentage of the day's range. -DI measures in similar fashion how much  on average each day's trading range has been below the low of the previous day. ADX (Average Directional Index) measures the difference between +DI and -DI, so when the two directional indicators are moving apart ADX will increase. The standard look back period is 14 days (per Welles Wilder) however other settings are often used, for instance 8, 13 and 18. As with all indicators, there is generally a trade off between speed and accuracy of signals, the lower settings will give you quicker signals, but there may be more false signals.

The +DI effectively measures the strength of the bulls, the -DI the strength of the bears. Whichever of these two indicators is above the other, that is the dominant one; in an uptrend DI+ will be higher than DI-, in a downtrend DI- will be higher than DI+.

The ADX measures the strength (or otherwise) of the trend. If the ADX is above 25 this is taken as an indication that a trend is in place, and trend following techniques can be used. (Some traders use 30 as their cut off.) A rising ADX means the trend is increasing in strength, a falling ADX signifies either consolidation or a potential reversal of trend.

One note of caution, ADX usually lags price action a little, and by a significant amount in a sharp trend reversal. No indicator is perfect.

So what trading strategies can be used with this tool? In essence, the tool can be used both as a filter to identify when and when not to use trend following techniques; in addition the tool is also used by some traders to generate entry or exit signals.

Here are some examples of various assumptions traders make using this tool to give themselves an edge:

  1. If ADX is above 25 and rising and +DI is above DI, this is a strong uptrend, look to buy on a pullback
  2. If ADX is above 25 and rising and -DI is above +DI, this is a strong downtrend, look to sell on a rally
  3. If ADX is less than 25, this not a strong trend, do not use trend following techniques
  4. If  +DI and -DI are moving sideways and less than 25, and ADX is less than 25, there is no trend, do not use trend following techniques
  5. If ADX moves above both +DI and -DI and then turns down, this is a warning sign, the trend may be weakening
  6. If +DI crosses up over -DI  this is potentially a new uptrend, buy a break of the high of the crossover day
  7. If -DI crosses up over +DI this is potentially a new downtrend, sell a break of the low of the crossover day

Pivot pointsPosted in Technical analysis on 17/07/08
Pivot points are an old floor trader technique for calculating possible levels of intra day support and resistance based on the previous day's high low and close.

Typical price is an average of the high the low and the close, and from the typical price 4 additional levels are most commonly calculated, R1 the first level of resistance above the typical price and R2 the second level, S1 the first level of support below the typical price and S2 the second.

Trading systems can be designed around these levels, for instance buying if price reaches the S2 level or selling if price reached the R2 level, in the expectation that these will be close to the extremes of the day. There will of course be days when price goes sailing through such levels without stopping, producing losses for the system, and such systems have to carefully crafted to contain such losses while taking advantage of a possible edge derived from tendencies for price to be contained by the various levels.

Less usually some traders apply the pivot point concept to weekly figures.

The actual calculations (using the previous periods numbers to derive the current periods levels) are:

R2 = TP + High - Low
R1 = (TP x 2) - Low
Typical price (TP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
S1 = (TP x 2) - High
S2 = TP + Low - High

There are a number of variations for calculating the Typical price, some bringing in the open of the previous period, others varying the calculations according to whether that period's close was higher lower or equal to its open. Some traders also like to calculate additional levels. However for the most part the traditional calculation with just the 5 levels provide those that use this methodology with what they require.

For reference the most common way of calculating R3 and S3 is:
R3 = TP + ((High - Low) x 2)
S3 = TP - ((High - Low) x 2

You can use the Spread Betting Central Pivot Calculator here

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