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Members forum - threads by users of my DVDPosted in Strategy on 21/01/10
Just a reminder for everyone who has my DVD and is actively trading the TDS and T+DS strategies, you are strongly recommended if you havent yet done this to follow the registration procedures to access the Member's area of the forum on this site (provided with the DVD).

Here are some of the articles on the DVD which have been posted recently by people trading the strategies:

Creating your own rules sets for trading TDS

Success

TDS qn re entry requirements

TDS qn re spread adjustment for targets

TDS and market classifications

TDS

Looking at past Kagi history

Contingency plansPosted in Strategy on 18/01/10
The recent snow was quite severe in my area, and at various points the phone line we use for our internet connection went down.

An additional relevant factor is that the mobile signal is not strong enough to receive data via a dongle.

I think every trader should have a set of rules to cover loss of internet connection, both for new trades and existing trades.

I have an incredibly simple set of rules, which form part of the contingency plan section of my 2010 -2011 trading business plan (an 82 page document).

The rules say I cant trade if there is no internet connection: no new trades, and exit all existing positions.

So that is what I did, and had to wait several days for the line to be repaired.

You might consider that quite a drastic step, and you might have rules that say that no new trades, but keep existing ones with a stop and limit order to exit, for instance. The point is not so much what the rules are but rather that this particular contingency has been thought about in advance, and the rules are documented.

Some shorting restrictions removedPosted in Strategy on 12/10/08

Reflecting changed circumstances in the underlyings a number of spread betting firms have removed some of their shorting restrictions, mainly on various US stocks. Most of the European restrictions remain, and as always it is essential to check the latest situation with the spread betting firm you are planning to use. Most of the firms provide clear outlines of what they can and cannot offer on their websites.


Biggest ever spread betting lossPosted in Strategy on 26/09/08
Last weekend the front page of the Sunday Mirror featured an article about Mr Ashley, the owner of Newcastle United. The article suggested he had incurred a £300m spread betting loss, betting on HBOS going up. Other papers also referred to a loss, some of them mentioning the figure of £200m.

I was consulted about various aspects of spread betting, and the article has a number of quotes from "the spread betting expert Malcolm Pryor".

I was asked if this was the biggest loss I had heard of, and if it really is that size I doubt there have been any larger losses incurred on one bet. Obviously Mr Ashley has a vast fortune, and perhaps for him £300m is like you or I losing a fiver.

Are there any possible lessons for those of us that do not have that kind of wealth?

Various rules mentioned in the spread betting handbook possibly come to mind:

1) always have a pre determined point where you will exit a bet if it goes against you (like poker, exit the bad hands)

2) only bet with speculative funds you can afford to lose

3) limit bet size to a small percentage of speculative funds, for instance a lot of people like to limit their losses to just 1% of speculative funds on any one bet

4) for stocks, it usually pays to bet in the same direction as the overall market and sector.

Shorting no longer allowed for some stocksPosted in Strategy on 26/09/08
Following government action around the world to try to minimise the impact of short selling, it is no longer possible to place down bets on various stocks. The precise details are not static at the moment, and therefore it is essential to keep up to date with what is and is not allowed. Most spread betting firms are keeping their customers informed via email or via their websites. There are currently at least 20 stocks in the financial services sector for which no new down bets can be placed.

Spread Betting Strategy I - Betting On A TrendPosted in Strategy on 17/07/08

One common strategy for trading is to follow a trend. The basic approach is to establish a methodology to identify a trend, decide how to enter it, and then ride the trend as long as possible.

Many technical analysis tools are available to identify trends. These include ADX (see separate article on this), trendlines and moving averages, as well as the more obvious visual inspection. The classic distinguishing features of an uptrend are higher highs and higher lows, of a downtrend lower highs and lower lows.

There are two main choices for entering a trend once indentified, and the one chosen will depend on the style and preferences of the trader. One choice is to enter on a breakout of some kind, catching a new trend in its early stages, the other is to wait for a pullback once the trend is already established. There are advantages and disadvantages in both techniques. Entering on breakouts risks that the breakout turns out to be false, but when it is successful more of the move can be captured. Entering on pullbacks captures less of the move (by definition some of it has already occurred), and also risks that the pullback is in fact the start of a significant correction rather than just a short break in the trend; on the other hand the trend is already proven, and risk can be accurately defined with clear stop points.

How much of the trend can be ridden once entered depends on the quality of exit technique employed. Usually some kind of trailing stop is employed, which needs to be not too close (otherwise it will be triggered by random noise) and not too far (otherwise too much profit will be given up). The ideal trailing stop will be triggered when a signicant correction to the trend begins.


Strategies used for spread bettingPosted in Strategy on 17/07/08
Many strategies are available. Strategies referred to in the book include
  • Betting on a trend, entering on a break out
  • Betting on a trend, entering on a pullback
  • Buying support, selling resistance
  • Betting on candlestick patterns
  • Betting on gaps
  • Betting on indicator divergence
  • Intraday betting (gaps, results, false break outs, blow offs, binary bets)
  • Arbitrage
  • Pairs trading
  • Hedging

PlanningPosted in Strategy on 17/07/08
Successful spread bettors generally have good plans, in many different forms , for example
  • annual trading plan
  • mission statement
  • objectives
  • goals
  • analysis of strengths and weaknesses
  • opportunities
  • threats
  • market selection, market directional philosophy
  • set ups
  • entries
  • stops, profit taking, re entry
  • money management algorithms
  • risk management
  • beliefs
  • trading and psychological rules
  • trading routines
  • weekly planning routines
  • daily planning routines

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