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<![CDATA[Spread Betting Central Feed]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk (c) Global Investor http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/feeds/docs en-gb 60 Fri, 30 Jul 2010 06:00:02 GMT <![CDATA[Spread Betting Central Feed]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/images/logo.jpg http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=238 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=238 The recent more bullish price action in the overall market has generated no less than 14 sectors (out of 39) which pass the five tests for an up trend and which have also outperformed the overall market by at least 5% over the last three months.

Meanwhile, there are 2 sectors which pass the tests for a down trend and which have also under performed the overall market by at least 5% over the last three months.

Up trends:
Automobiles
Chemicals
Electricity
Electronics and electrical equipment
Food producers
General industrials
Industrial engineering
Mobile telecoms
Non life insurance
Oil equipment
Personal goods
Pharmaceuticals
Technology
Tobacco

Down trends:
Alternative energy
Health care

]]> Fri, 23 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=237 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=237
These sectors are:
Chemicals
Electricity
Electronic & electrical equipment
Industrial engineering
Personal goods
Pharmaceuticals
Technology hardware
Tobacco.]]> Fri, 16 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=235 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=235
The sector remaining is Alternative energy.

Conversely, we now have seven sectors with a bullish bias:
Electricity
Electronic & electrical equipment
Fixed line telecommunications
Industrial engineering
Non life insurance
Personal goods
Technology hardware.

We have seen a number of these kinds of swings from one week to the next, during a phase when the overall market has been choppy and effectively swingin within a wide trading range.]]> Sat, 10 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[Seminar 21 August]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=236 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=236
Attendance is capped at 12 to encourage a fully participative environment. There is a broad structure for the day and a large workbook, however I adapt each seminar to match everyone's learning objectives for the day, which is the first thing we look at.

Attendees can pick any learning objectives they want, but usually they are chosen from the following main areas:

Set up and resources for spread betting - shopping for the best on the market
Markets and products available - pros and cons
Account operation, practical issues, street wisdom, share experiences
Using technical analysis for market overviews, entries, exits, determining bet size
Strategies for trades, generic ingredients, specific strategies for different markets
Risk control, methods and techniques
Planning and monitoring, approaches and techniques
Developing a winning attitude, continual development

In the last couple of seminars there has been a lot of interest in exit techniques, whether to exit at targets or not, whether or not to trail stops and if so how. Over the last couple of years I have also seen an ever increasing interest in day trading and in trading foreign exchange.

For more information, or to reserve a place, go to www.sparkdales.co.uk

]]> Sat, 10 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=234 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=234
Sectors where we have a bearish bias based on under performance versus the market and down trends are:

Alternative energy
Automobiles
Construction
Forestry and paper
Mining
Oil and gas producers]]> Fri, 02 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 Sectors - update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=233 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=233 Electronic & electrical equipment
Industrial engineering

There are two sectors where we have a bearish bias, with under performance against the overall market, and trending down:
Construction
Oil & gas producers]]> Fri, 25 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 Sectors - Update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=232 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=232
These are:
Chemicals
Fixed line telecommunications
General industrials
Industrial engineering
Non life insurance
Personal goods
Technology hardware

There are three sectors where we have a bearish bias, due to the sectors underperforming the overall market by 5% or more over the last three months, and passing tests for being in a down trend.

These are:
Alternative energy
Oil and gas producers
Real estate investment and services]]> Fri, 18 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=231 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=231 Sectors which have outperformed the overall market by 5% or more over the last 3 months, and which are trending up using 5 different tests are:
Fixed line telecommunications
Personal goods
Technolology hardware

Sectors which have under performed the overall market by 5% or more over the last 3 months, and which are trending down using 5 different tests are:
Oil producers
Real estate investments and services

]]> Sat, 12 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 Sectors - Update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=230 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=230
That sector is Personal Goods.

There are two sectors where we have a bearish bias, with under performance versus the overall market of more than 5% and meeting the five tests for a down trend.

These are:
Oil and Gas Producers
Real Estate Investment & Services]]> Sun, 06 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[The effect of streaks]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=229 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=229
Dr Tharp has an interesting section on the effect of streaks on the psychology of the trader. When a long streak occurs you tend to readjust the odds of your system in your head and risk appropriately. So, during a losing streak traders tend to assume that the system is no good or the market has changed, and risk less. And during a winning streak they think their system is the Holy Grail, and risk more.

The reality is, streaks occur randomly and the trader should recognise this.

The figures are actually startling if you havent seen them before.

Lets take the example of a system which wins 50% of the time, and lets look at the probability of various losing streaks.

It is virtually certain that you will get 5 losers in a row at some point. There is roughly a 10% chance that you will get 9 losers in a row and roughly a 1% chance that you will get 12 losers in a row.

Let now say you have a system which wins 70% of the time.

It is virtually certain that you will get 3 losers in a row at some point. There is roughly a 10% chance that you will get 5 or 6 losers in a row and roughly a 1% chance that you will get 7 or 8 losers in a row.

If you are suprised by the figures and not sure whether you have the right psychology to cope with the probabilities get Van Tharp's book!]]> Wed, 02 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=227 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=227
In less volatile markets than of late some sectors have clearly been under or over performing versus the overall market. More recently with the large surge downwards a lot of the sectors have fallen in synch. The other factor this last week has been the pullback that some sectors have enjoyed from their low point in the early part of the week. As a result we have only two sectors which have both under performed the overall market and which also pass the other five tests for a down trend.

You will perhaps not be surprised that none of the sectors pass the test for an up trend.

So, out of 39 sectors, none with a bullish bias, 2 with a bearish bias also incorporating under performance.

These 2 are
Real estate investment and services
Tobacco]]> Sun, 30 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[June 12 seminar full]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=228 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=228
Provisionally the next one is being scheduled for Saturday August 21, subject to our usual hotel being able to accommodate us.

Booking forms will be available later this week at www.sparkdales.co.uk]]> Sun, 30 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - update]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=226 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=226
As a reminder the 6 tests for bearish bias include: down trends registering on Kagi and 3 line break charts, and using a triple moving average combination and an ADX filter; price below the 200 day moving average; relative under performance versus the market of 5% over the last three months.

The 6 sectors with a bearish bias are:
Alternative energy
Electricity
Industrial metals
Life insurance
Real estate investment and services
Tobacco]]> Sat, 22 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sector updates]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=225 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=225
Alternative energy
Electricity
Real estate investment trusts.

These three sectors have been underperforming the market, and are in clear down trends using a variety of techniques to diagnose a trend. They are also all below their 200 day moving average.]]> Sat, 15 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - 6 shorts no longs]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=224 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=224
The sectors with a bearish bias are:
Alternative energy
Electricity
Fixed line telecoms
Real estate investment and services
Real estate investment trusts
Tobacco]]> Sat, 08 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - Tuesday]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=223 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=223
That leaves just the Electronic and electrical sector with a bullish bias, but within the sector there is now just one FTSE 350 stock which passes all the tests.

Several sectors are close to falling below their 200 day moving average, which will potentially create more sectors which pass all the tests for a short bias.]]> Mon, 03 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[FTSE 350 sectors - major changes]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=222 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=222
The position now is that there are only three sectors left where the analysis suggests a bullish bias, and within those sectors a total of only 6 stocks still pass all the tests.

Meanwhile there is now one sector where the analysis suggests a bearish bias, with several waiting in the wings. This sector only has one stock which passes the test.

The sectors concerned are:
Bullish bias: Electronic and electrical equipment, Industrial engineering, Technology

Bearish bias: Tobacco]]> Sun, 02 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[Impact of Tuesday falls on sector analysis]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=221 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=221 After preparing the weekly sector analysis every week I also prepare for myself a list of stocks which are in sectors which pass the tests and which also themselves pass the tests.

During the week, I reduce the lists of sectors and stocks if they fail any of five of the six tests (I dont make mid week amendments for relative strength against the market, but all five of the other tests are checked on a daily basis).

In most weeks the changes are not that dramatic, however the tests are quite responsive to new events, in particular the 3 - line break charts.

Based on Tuesday's falls the number of sectors where I still have a long bias has been reduced from 10 out of 39 to just 7 out of 39; and the number of stocks on the list has been reduced from 49 to 34.

This sector analysis directs me to outperforming and up trending stocks in bull markets, under performing and down trending stocks in bear markets. In sideways markets it will start to reduce the number of sectors in focus. For it to signal short trades some of the sectors will need to fall below their 200 day moving average, since the analysis always respect that - it will never have a short bias in a sector above its 200 day moving average.

The sectors which have survived the down blast so far are:
Beverages
General Industrials
Industrial engineering
Media
Support services
Technology
Travel and leisure

]]> Tue, 27 Apr 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[How the sector analysis works]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=219 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=219
For one of the 39 FTSE 350 sectors to be included in my list of sectors where I have a long bias the sector has to pass 6 tests. For a stock to be of interest the stock has to be in one of those sectors, and also has to pass the six tests.

The 6 tests for a long bias are:
1) price above 200 moving average
2) triple moving average combination in up trend mode (13 -26-52)
3) outperformance of at least 5% over the last 3 months
4) Kagi chart in Yang mode
5) 3 line break chart positive
6) either ADX 10 30 or higher with DI+ above DI minus, or 14 day DI+ 30 or higher

Tests for a short bias are the mirror image of this.

The new additional test reduced the number of sectors this week where I have a long bias from 12 to 10.]]> Thu, 22 Apr 2010 23:00:00 GMT <![CDATA[Weekly update on FTSE 350 sectors]]> http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=220 http://www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk/strategies.htm?id=220
Note there are no sectors where my analysis suggests a short bias (very few are below the 200 day moving average, and those that are dont pass other tests). However due to the recent trend line break on the overall market described last week caution is required when going long, IMO.

Sectors where I have a long bias
Automobiles
Beverages
General Industrials
Industrial Transportation
Media
Oil equipment
Support services
Technology
Travel and leisure.

Total sectors = 39, long bias 10, short bias 0, neutral 29.]]> Thu, 22 Apr 2010 23:00:00 GMT